The calculation
Multiply each eligible output's estimated market price by its hit chance. Add those weighted values, then subtract the total input cost. The result is the estimated net EV for one contract, before any selling fees or unusual float and pattern premiums.
Profit if hit versus contract EV
The outcome cards show potential profit if that particular item hits. That value is the item's estimated price minus the full input cost. It is useful for identifying best and worst outcomes, but it is not the probability-weighted EV of the entire contract.
Missing quotes should not become zero-dollar outcomes
Market quotes can fail or be unavailable for a wear, finish or phase. The simulator leaves headline EV blank unless the input cost and prices for all eligible outcomes are available. You can enter your real input cost manually, but a missing output quote still prevents a reliable EV estimate.
Where float fits in
Input float affects the predicted wear of possible outputs and therefore which market quote is relevant. The completed roll's float is calculated from the chosen inputs; only the outcome selection is random. Prices remain estimates at the wear/finish level, so inspect the exact item and current listing before spending money.